Aumenta el consumo eléctrico en LATAM
Refeel En Latinoamérica, Panamá está entre las tres mejores economías de éste 2022 con crecimiento esperado anual de 8,2% tras la recuperación pospandemia covid 19.
Aunque ese crecimiento del hemisferio (sin contar, obviamente a Estados Unidos) esperado pasó de 2,1% a 1,8% (dato: Comisión Económica para Latinoamérica de las Nacionales Unidas), por el mencionado conflicto bélico que genera volatilidad en mercados y extra costos financieros. El PIB de Colombia crecerá 4,8% una de las mejores economías de la región, que en mayo tendrá que tomar una decisión si sigue en libertad o se incluye al camino del socialismo.
Ese crecimiento -con cifras más o cifras menos- definitivamente viene “de la mano” del uso de energía (electricidad) en todos los segmentos de la sociedad, industria, comercio, servicios, hogares.
De forma que mientras más se invierta en la industria de energía, naturalmente, habrá mejores condiciones para que industrias, comercio y servicios tengan más acceso a energía y por consecuencia mayor crecimiento económico. El desafío es llevar energía a todos a bajo coste.
De momento, en Latinoamérica hay unas 20 millones de personas que aún no tienen acceso a energía con flujo corriente a bajo precio y que sea generada vía renovable. Se necesitaría, según cálculos muy conservadores, de aproximadamente 35.000 millones de dólares de inversión para incorporar a esa importante masa de gente al utilización de la energía y tratar de lograr así el ansiado “acceso universal” en 2030. Inversiones en generación, infraestructura de transmisión y de distribución comercial de electricidad.
Para lograr esas cifras, sólo en este acápite, se requieren nuevas reglas, nuevos modelos de integración entre países que estimulen e impulsen sociedades comerciales, inversiones privadas, emprendimientos en renovables y regulación que sea prácticamente uniforme y estimulante para la industria.
Destacamos un modelo, con ya un par de décadas de vigencia, de interacción e integración energética (interconexión eléctrica) entre Paraguay, Argentina y Brasil que comercian, fácilmente, 46.000 GWh en promedio anual. Modelos de generación y venta de electricidad en Itaipú y Yaciretá, por ejemplo.
La integración debe continuar: nuevos modelos para nuevos mercados. Con regulación abierta y que promueva la inversión, como ya establecimos.
La pandemia (2020) y los efectos de la pospandemia (2021,2022) desafiaron la creatividad de las economías de Latinoamérica, se redujeron consumos de electricidad en todos los sectores y nos obligaron a pensar modelos resilientes para volver a una “nueva normalidad”.
Menos mal que el confinamiento detuvo la propagación de la enfermedad, los modelos de uso del Internet intensivo no detuvieron la economía y luego la vacunación masiva generó otro estado en los países que ahora buscan crecer utilizando más energía, siendo el concepto principal uso de la energía de fuente renovable.
Latinoamérica tuvo siempre cifras importantes de crecimiento en uso de energía hasta marzo 2020, cuando la demanda de consumo eléctrico cayó en casi 10% versus el consumo en el periodo 2019.
El Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo tiene datos confirmados de esa caída de consumo eléctrico: Perú (-29%), Bolivia (-19%), El Salvador (-17%), Panamá (-16%) y Brasil (-10%), que adicionalmente tuvieron decrecimiento económico en la región.
En 2020 hubo una caída de consumo de energía: -2.5%, los más afectados transportes (-13.6%), comercio (-8%), agricultura y minería (-1.4%) e industria (-0.7%).
La recuperación económica en 2022, por la vacunación y el movimiento de la economía, logró elevar la demanda entre enero y febrero 2022 versus mismos meses 2019 hubo incremento de demanda 0,8% en Uruguay a 19,5% en República Dominicana, por dar un par de ejemplos.La conclusión inmediata es que la energía volvió a consumirse en niveles de prepandemia y no solamente eso: hay más demanda en nuevos sectores. La idea es descarbonizar la economía, mover el transporte con electricidad, dejar de usos combustibles derivados del petróleo e ingresar a una nueva forma de sociedad más verde y responsable con el uso de la energía.
El caso colombiano sirva para ilustrar ese crecimiento de demanda pero al mismo tiempo crecimiento de demanda de energía verde: en febrero 2022 Colombia generó 5.882,7 GWh (giga vatio/hora), con un crecimiento de 4% comparado con la generación de enero 2022 y 76,38% de la generación fue de recursos renovables (solar, hidro y eólica), mientras que 23,62% restante fue de recursos no renovables. Aunque el gas natural y el carbón también son parte importante del mix energético.
Caso brasilero: según datos de la Cámara de Comercialización de Energía Eléctrica, Brasil demandó un promedio de 66.751 MW megavatios en enero 2022, y en su denominado mercado libre, que abastece a la industria y grandes empresas, como centros comerciales y cadenas minoristas, se demandaron 22.522 MW promedio, monto 4,7% superior a enero de 2021.
Relevante resaltar el avance de la denominada “generación distribuida” en algunos países de Latinoamérica, que no es otra cosa que paneles solares instalados en viviendas y comercios, reduciendo la demanda del Sistema Interconectado Nacional.
El consumo de energía continuará impulsando la economía global y lógicamente la de Latinoamérica.
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